In the past week, there were three strategic endgames for Israel:

1. Leadership change in Iran

2. Diplomatic resolution & nuclear disarmament

3. Drawing the US into the conflict

✔️ As of today, Option 3 is playing out.

🔴 What triggered the US move?

Israel’s earlier strikes on Iranian facilities at Natanz and Isfahan caused only superficial damage. Key installations, like Fordow’s underground enrichment facility (96m below), needed bunker-busting firepower—a task only the US B-2 stealth bombers and GBU-57 MOP bombs could achieve.

📉 Consequences:

1. Iran has retaliated with missile strikes.

2. Most critically, it has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows.

🌍 For countries like India, this is a serious energy risk.

Already, oil prices are climbing (Brent crosses $77/barrel), and India has responded by increasing Russian oil imports—from 1% to over 40% post-Ukraine war sanctions.

⛽️ A new energy shock? A new regional war? Or the beginning of another drawn-out foreign intervention?

🤔 One must ask:

1. Is this strategic escalation sustainable?

2. What precedent does Afghanistan offer for US-led regime change?

3. Will this open up space again for extremist groups like ISIS?

📢 Your thoughts?

How should India navigate this high-stakes geopolitical maze?

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